AI buildout drives USD $120 billion data centre surge
Wed, 19th Aug 2026 (Today)
Dell'Oro Group forecasts worldwide data centre physical infrastructure revenue will reach USD $120 billion by 2030, growing at a 22 per cent compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030.
The forecast is tied to a major expansion in installed IT capacity as artificial intelligence workloads drive construction and equipment demand across the sector. Nearly 200GW of data centre capacity is expected to be added over the period, with annual net additions peaking in growth terms in 2026 before moderating, while remaining in double-digit territory through 2030.
The findings suggest a market that is still expanding rapidly, but with uncertainty shifting away from demand. The more immediate constraints now focus on delivery, including equipment lead times, construction labour, grid interconnection and local project approvals.
Alex Cordovil, Research Director at Dell'Oro Group, said those factors had grown in importance as AI-related investment shifted from a short-term burst to a lasting feature of the market.
"The AI buildout has moved past the point where it can be treated as a surge. It is now the baseline against which the rest of the market is measured," said Alex Cordovil, Research Director at Dell'Oro Group.
"What has changed in this forecast is where the risk sits. Demand is no longer the open question-delivery is. Equipment lead times, construction labor, grid interconnection, and community consent all remain constrained, especially with the first statewide data center moratorium now in force," Cordovil said.
Cooling demand
Among the main product categories, thermal management is expected to post the fastest growth, with liquid cooling leading as higher rack densities push operators towards systems that can handle more concentrated heat loads.
Water-cooled chillers are also expected to grow faster than air-cooled units. The shift reflects the need to scale cooling systems for larger AI deployments, while chillers are still expected to remain part of many data centre designs even where operators adopt warm-water approaches.
Power infrastructure is also set to evolve as AI clusters grow larger. Growth in uninterruptible power supply systems is forecast to be concentrated in higher-power three-phase equipment, with medium-voltage designs gaining ground as operators connect systems closer to the grid.
Solid-state transformers could begin to weigh on demand for UPS systems from 2029, especially in very large AI-focused facilities moving away from architectures built around traditional UPS deployments.
Who is buying
The expected rise in spending is not limited to one buyer group. Hyperscalers are projected to remain the largest single contributor to physical infrastructure revenue by the end of the forecast period, although their growth is expected to slow from the pace seen in the earlier phase of the AI buildout.
Colocation providers are also expected to remain central to market expansion. The spread of powered shell development is shifting some equipment procurement from landlords to tenants, changing which customer segment records the spending without affecting building occupancy itself.
The report also identifies AI-specialised cloud providers, including neoclouds and model builders, as one of the fastest-growing customer segments in its coverage. Enterprise demand is expected to keep growing, but at a slower rate than the broader market.
Regional split
North America is expected to lead global capacity additions through 2030, followed by China. That ranking reflects the concentration of large-scale AI investment and the presence of major customers willing to commit to rapid expansion.
Elsewhere, the outlook is more mixed. Dell'Oro revised down its view of Europe, the Middle East and Africa, citing slower power availability and a tougher permitting environment. Community opposition has also become a material constraint on site selection, blocking or delaying a meaningful share of announced projects.
By contrast, the firm expects stronger growth in the Caribbean and Latin America, and in Asia Pacific excluding China. It linked that outlook to regional diversification in development patterns and to expected changes in US natural gas pricing that could affect how investment is distributed.
Overall, AI is reshaping the market at every level, from the pace of construction to the cooling and power systems being installed. Nearly 200GW of additional data centre capacity is expected to be built globally through 2030.