UK brings solar storm tools into live forecasting use

The UK has brought new solar storm forecasting tools into operational use to help protect flights, GPS navigation and the electricity grid. The systems were developed through the £20 million SWIMMR research programme.

The tools are already being used in live forecasting systems, marking a shift from academic research to day-to-day operational monitoring of space weather threats. An independent evaluation by Frazer-Nash Consultancy found the programme met its main goals of improving forecast accuracy, widening access to data and speeding the transfer of research into service.

Space weather is caused by eruptions from the Sun, including coronal mass ejections, which can disrupt satellites, communications, navigation systems and electricity networks on Earth. In the UK's National Risk Register, severe space weather is classed as a top-tier national risk. A National Audit Office estimate put the potential economic impact of a major event at £9 billion.

The SWIMMR programme was led by the Science and Technology Facilities Council and the Natural Environment Research Council, in partnership with the Met Office, the British Geological Survey, the British Antarctic Survey and RAL Space. It ran for five years and brought together universities, national laboratories and industry partners in the UK and overseas.

One of the clearest tests came during the geomagnetic storm that swept across Earth in May 2024 and produced widespread auroral displays over the UK. While the Northern Lights drew public attention, scientists at the British Geological Survey used a new forecasting system to identify electricity substations most exposed to geomagnetically induced currents.

The system gave grid operators earlier warning of possible electrical imbalances. Programme backers said it was the first time the UK had this level of operational foresight into how a severe solar storm might affect parts of the power network.

Quicker transfer

The evaluation found that five UK-developed forecasting models are now moving into operational use at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre. They cover radiation hazards, solar wind, ionospheric disruption and impacts on electricity networks.

A cloud-based platform developed through the programme has also cut the time needed to transfer research models into operational systems. According to the evaluation, that process has fallen from several years to about six months.

New measurement tools are supplying live data to the Met Office operation, with the aim of improving response times when threats emerge for satellites, communications systems, aviation and the power grid. Full integration into operational services is expected by the end of 2026.

Professor Ian McCrea, Resilient Society theme lead at RAL Space and head of the SWIMMR programme, described the programme's effect on UK readiness.

"SWIMMR has delivered a major advance in the UK's space-weather capability, turning cutting-edge research into improved operational forecasting tools to protect satellites, aviation and the electricity grid. It has strengthened the UK's ability to understand and respond to severe solar activity in real time, placing the UK among the leading nations developing operational space-weather forecasting capability through close international collaboration," McCrea said.

Operational models

Among the projects highlighted is a model for forecasting high-energy electron activity in radiation belts around Earth. Before this work, the UK did not have real-time forecasts for those regions, despite the risk they pose to satellites carrying navigation, weather and communications services.

The work was led by the British Antarctic Survey with Imperial College London, the universities of Reading, Northumbria and Sheffield, and the Met Office. The model is now in pre-operational use at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre.

Another strand focused on radiation exposure on polar air routes, where passengers and crew can face higher levels of radiation during solar storms. The University of Surrey developed and installed sensors on commercial aircraft and weather balloons, feeding real-time readings into the Met Office.

Using those measurements, Surrey developed MAIRE+, described as the UK's first real-time model of aviation radiation exposure during normal conditions and solar storms. A related model, MAIRE-R, extends the work to very high altitudes, and both are now in pre-operational use.

Simon Machin, manager of the Met Office Space Weather Programme and meteorologist, said the collaboration had changed the speed at which forecasting tools could be adopted.

"SWIMMR has fundamentally changed the way we bring space-weather research into operational forecasting. By working directly with researchers throughout the programme, we have been able to move new models and data streams into live forecasting far more quickly than was previously possible. That means better situational awareness during severe space-weather events and earlier warning of potential impacts affecting satellites, communications, aviation and the electricity grid," Machin said.

Industry testing

The programme also expanded testing of electronics exposed to radiation linked to solar storms. At the ChipIr facility within the ISIS Neutron and Muon Source, the NILE laboratory was added to let engineers assess how components perform under a broader range of radiation conditions.

Researchers said the work showed that solar-driven neutron events can trigger cascading failures in vulnerable components. The facility is described as the only one of its kind in Europe, and technology companies are using it to test network routers, data centre hardware and high-power semiconductors.

In total, SWIMMR included 11 connected projects and involved more than 70 organisations. The programme established 29 domestic and 33 international partnerships, while about 40 specialist roles were created or sustained over five years.

The independent evaluation also found the programme generated about 60 pence of additional investment for every £1 of public funding. "The priority now is ensuring these advances are embedded in operational services and continue to evolve through real-world use," McCrea said.