European IT distribution market to grow by 3.6% in 2025

CONTEXT has projected a 3.6% growth in the European IT distribution market for 2025, highlighting a recovery following a period of stagnation and decline.

The latest CONTEXT Forecasting Report for the first quarter of 2025 notes steady recovery in the sector. The report attributes this positive change to substantial investments in AI infrastructure, the beginning of a new PC refresh cycle, and initiatives from the public sector aimed at digital transformation.

Anthony Frot, Research Director at CONTEXT, noted, "After a tough period, the European IT distribution market is regaining strength. The PC refresh cycle, AI-led infrastructure demand, and a more stable macroeconomic environment are setting the stage for sustainable growth. While challenges persist, the signs for 2025 are encouraging."

The report identifies key areas driving this growth. The upcoming end of Windows 10 support is expected to accelerate PC upgrades among consumers and businesses, particularly with mobile PCs. Predictions for mobile computing unit sales include a 2.1% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025 and a 4.7% rise over the year, with significant growth in the second half. Desktop PC sales are expected to increase by 4% year-on-year in the first quarter and 5.1% over the entire year, with anticipated revenue growth of 5.8% year-on-year.

There is also a noted increase in spending on AI-ready servers and storage solutions, which is bolstering growth in on-premises infrastructure.

Government initiatives, like Spain's Digital Kit program, are anticipated to further enhance distribution revenues by supporting digital transformation within the public sector.

Software and services continue to perform strongly, surpassing expectations and reinforcing the role of distributors within the supply chain. Despite the slow performance in the initial quarter of 2025, CONTEXT expects steady quarterly growth as economic conditions become more stable. However, geopolitical instability in Europe, potential trade conflicts, and currency fluctuations are noted risks.

Anthony Frot highlighted, "We are seeing increased optimism among distributors, especially in AI-driven categories. The second half of 2025 is likely to be stronger as businesses resume infrastructure investments and governments push digital adoption. However, the market remains sensitive to political and economic volatility."